I do not think much of the accident or good luck theory of self-made men. It is worth but little attention and has no practical value. An apple carelessly flung into a crowd may hit one person, or it may hit another, or it may hit nobody. The probabilities are precisely the same in this accident theory of self-made men. It divorces a man from his own achievements, contemplates him as a being of chance and leaves him without will, motive, ambition and aspiration. Yet the accident theory is among the most popular theories of individual success.
What is something everyone in your world agrees about that you think is wrong?
Question
What are bad recommendations you hear in your profession or area of expertise?
Craft & work
In my opinion, the key to dealing with the future lies in knowing where you are, even if you can't know precisely where you're going. Knowing where you are in a cycle and what that implies for the future is very different from predicting the timing, extent and shape of the next cyclical move.
Oaktree memo, Oaktree Capital Management (client memo), 20 November 2001 source ↗
Others on this question
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Frederick Douglass
Abolitionist, orator, newspaper editor and U.S. diplomat; U.S. Marshal for the District of Columbia 1877–1881; U.S. Minister Resident to Haiti 1889–1891
Recorded
Lecture, delivered repeatedly 1859–1893, Teaching American History, reproducing Frederick Douglass Papers, Library of Congress Manuscript Division
source ↗
Charlie Munger
Vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, 1978–2023
I realized very early that non-egality would work better in the parts of the world I wanted to inhabit. What do I mean by non-egality? I mean John Wooden, when he was the number one basketball coach in the world. He just said to the bottom five players, “You don't get to play. You're sparring partners.” The top seven did all the playing.
Bill Clinton
42nd President of the United States, 1993–2001
If I had to make the welfare decision again tomorrow, I’d sign it again tomorrow. We had a 60 percent reduction in the welfare rolls. We had an enormous percentage of poor people move into the workforce, start middle-class lifestyles, and when we had a brief tech recession of six months in 2001, after I left office, people who had moved from welfare to work were less likely to be laid off than the general working population. So I would do it again.
Roger Penrose
Mathematical physicist; Nobel laureate in Physics, 2020
Now according to me, and this is my cosmology scheme, which I'm having trouble persuading the cosmologists about, is that when the universe is rid of pretty well all its matter, it in a certain sense forgets how big it is. Now that's a crazy idea, but you see if you don't have any mass around you don't have any way of scaling the size of the universe, and so it in effect becomes the big bang of the next aeon as I'm calling it – A E O N. So according to my scheme, the universe as we currently understand it, which is from big bang, and then there's this inflationary phase which I don't believe in, which is supposed to take place very, very early on, and then the universe has this more sedate expansion, and then it has another exponential expansion, and that's it. According to me, that's not it. It morphs into the next big bang.
Recorded
Adam Smith, Telephone interview recorded shortly after the prize announcement, Nobel Prize Outreach, 6 October 2020
source ↗
More from Howard Marks
View profile →There are a few things I dismiss and a few I believe in thoroughly. The former include economic forecasts, which I think don't add value, and the list of the latter starts with cycles and the need to prepare for them.
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